Bernreuter warns of possible polysilicon shortage by 2028

Bernreuter Research, a Germany-based polysilicon market analysis firm, has warned that excessive production cuts could trigger a global polysilicon shortage by 2028. Chinese manufacturers have expanded capacity to approximately 3.25 million metric tons by the end of 2024, accounting for 93.5% of global output. This expansion has pushed inventories to 400,000 metric tons and reduced prices below $4.50 per kg, which is below the cash cost for most producers. In December 2024, 33 Chinese polysilicon and solar companies agreed to cut production, but the reductions have not significantly lowered inventory levels. Bernreuter Research has said that prices are unlikely to exceed $5 per kg through 2027 unless additional supply cuts or silicon metal price increases occur. Global solar PV installations are forecast to reach 720GW DC in 2025 and 1,900GW DC by 2029, driven by rising demand.